Note the discrepancies between a Mexican Army report on killings in Juarez from January-June 2012: 952
And no resolution of these differing numbers. Also, as I recall, the total reported by EL DIARIO at the end of June was 536.... The total I reported was about 540.
I have been traveling the past few weeks and not able to research these things, but will attempt to find some more information later this week. If either number reported by the Army or the Fiscalia is true, then the REPORTING of the deaths in Juarez has not been accurate. That could be the fault of the Fiscalia, the Public Ministry, some other government entity, or the newspaper. We may never know the real number. What these disparate reports indicate is that the real numbers are most likely unknown to any government agency responsible for reporting and that the true death toll may never be known. As with other past reports, when government numbers do appear, they tend to be higher than previous media reports. Molly
Juárez slayings decreased 59.8% first half
Martínez-Cabrera \ El Paso Times
Posted: 07/14/2012 12:00:00 AM MDT
Gunmen shot at a Ford Expedition July 10 at
the intersection of Batalla de Torreon and Batalla de Puebla streets in Juarez.
One person was killed and two were wounded in the incident. (Special to the
Evidence continues to mount that the violence that has held this city in a
tight grip since 2008 is beginning to loosen -- though no one is ready to say
that Juárez has been reborn.
of slayings in this city of 1.3 million during the first six months of this
year dropped 59.8 percent compared with slayings in the same period of 2011,
according to figures from the Chihuahua state prosecutor's office.
officials have attributed the decrease to the efforts of law enforcement
agencies. In addition, Mexican and U.S. government sources and private analysts
have hinted that the cartel war that caused the eruption in violence is winding
say that the once-powerful Juárez
cartel has been weakened to a point that its rival, the Sinaloa
drug cartel, is consolidating its dominance.
report from geopolitical intelligence company Stratfor said the Juárez cartel
continues to control major drug corridors into El Paso, but it appears to be
unable to expand operations because it is hemmed in by the Sinaloa cartel and
no longer has a monopoly in Juárez.
VCF (Vicente Carrillo Fuentes or Juárez cartel) is only a shadow of the
organization it was a decade ago, and its weakness and inability to effectively
fight against the Sinaloa's advances in Juárez contributed to the lower death
toll in Juárez in 2011," the report said.
forecast that violence will continue
to decrease in Juárez as the Sinaloa cartel solidifies its control
on the region.
on the state's prosecutor's website indicate there were 1,623 killings between
January and June 2010, and 1,322 in the first half of 2011. This year, there
had been 653 slayings as of June 27, the website said.
such as vehicle, home and business robberies also have gone down.
On Wednesday, Army Gen. Emilio Zarate, head of the
Fifth Military Zone in Chihuahua, told
The Associated Press that
gang-related killings in Juárez dropped 42 percent in the first half of 2012.
Zarate said there were 952 killings from January
through June this year, compared with 1,642 during the same period last year.
It is unclear why the figures from the army and
Chihuahua state's prosecutor's office differed.
Spokesmen for the army and the prosecutor's office
could not be reached for comment on Friday.
the drop is related to the weakening of both the Juárez cartel -- which Zarate
said was having difficulties paying its members -- and rival gang Gente Nueva,
which is associated with the Sinaloa cartel.
experts have echoed the belief that violence will continue to go down as the
Juárez cartel's strength continues to erode.
2011 report from the U.S. Department of Justice National Drug Intelligence
Center said the Sinaloa Cartel has continued to gain influence in the Valley of
Juárez and over drug smuggling routes in the El Paso-Juárez area. The Juárez
cartel's operations have been largely confined within the city limits, the
also gone down where the Juárez cartel no longer has a presence, it added.
the past year have hurt the operations of both criminal organizations but seem
to have affected the Juárez cartel the most.
2010 through July 2011, federal police reported having arrested 288 people
associated with the Juárez cartel -- including José Antonio Acosta Hernández,
alias "El Diego," identified as the former leader of the cartel in
In the same
period, 69 member of the Sinaloa cartel were arrested. Authorities have also
arrested major Sinaloa cartel operators like José Antonio Torres Marrufo, alias
"El Marrufo," a top enforcer of the cartel who was arrested in
February and is thought to have ordered the massacre of 17 people at a
rehabilitation center in 2009.
authorities arrested Daniel Franco López, alias "El Micha," and
Fernando Arellano Romero, alias "El Gama," who were named in a United
States federal indictment in connection with the kidnapping and killing of a
Horizon City resident, Sergio Saucedo, in 2009.
war between the two cartels made Juárez one of the most violence cities in the
world -- an image that is slowing turning around. Since 2008, more than 10,500
people have died.
caused an exodus from the city, and as many as 70,000 people moved to El Paso
to escape the carnage. Businesses closed and the reputation of Juárez as a
tourist attraction suffered.
nightlife and restaurants that attracted tourists from all over the U.S. closed
Some of that
is beginning to return.
and residents say there is a sense that the city is becoming safer.
period of most intense violence, Mexican government officials sent up to 8,000
soldiers in an attempt to limit the brutality. Government officials also sent
thousands of federal police to help.
of Texas at El Paso professor Howard Campbell said the departure of the Mexican
army and the federal police from Juárez seems to have had an effect in the
reduction in crime and violence, although it was difficult to establish a
direct cause and effect.
think one could almost chart it, see when they left and find that homicides did
decline," he said.
said several months of declining homicide figures suggests a sustained downward
the homicide totals are going down month by month. I've gone down to Juárez
recently, and it feels much safer," he said.
Juárez mayor Héctor "Teto" Murguía visited state of Aguascalientes to
participate in a public safety conference, where he boasted about the decline
the improvements were due to more cooperation -- from the Mexican army, the
state prosecutor's office, the city government and the public -- in repairing
the city's social fabric. It's clear the two main criminal organizations
operating in the city have been weakened as well, he said. But Campbell said
the levels of crime and violence are still high and things are far from
said: "Things went from being very bad to fairly bad. We have to be
realistic. Things have to get better before we can say that the war is over or
violence is over."
Martínez-Cabrera can be reached at email@example.com; 546-6129. Follow
him on Twitter @AlejandroEPT.
Army: Border City Killings Down 42 Percent
The Mexican army says killings by criminal gangs in the northern
border city of Ciudad Juarez have fallen 42 percent in the first six months of
2012 as compared to the same period of 2011.
Local army commander Gen. Emilio Zarate says there were 952 such
killings in the first half of the year, compared to 1,642 in the first half of
Zarate says the drop is due to the weakening of the local Juarez
drug cartel and its rivals in the Gente Nueva gang, which is allied with the
Sinaloa drug cartel.
The two cartels have fought turf battles since 2008 that made
Ciudad Juarez Mexico's most violent city.
Zarate said Wednesday the Juarez cartel has become so weak it is
having trouble paying its members.