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Asunto:[MESHIKO] Mexico homicide numbers 2007-2012 (est.) chart
Fecha:Martes, 17 de Julio, 2012  11:23:09 (-0500)
Autor:REDLUZ <lacasadelared>

From: molly <>
Date: 2012/7/17
Subject: [frontera-list] Mexico homicide numbers 2007-2012 (est.) chart

Posted below are numbers of actual homicides for Mexico as a whole reported by different agencies of the Mexican government. I can provide the links to the sources. Molly


Homicides in Mexico 2007—June 2012 (est.) compared to US homicides 





8,867 #



14,006 #



19,803 #



24,374 #



22,223 +

14,000 (est. based on rate of decrease)

2012 (Jan-May)

8,662 +


2012 (est. Jan-June)



2012 (est. projection for year)


14,000 (est. based on rate of decrease)

Est. total homicides as of June 2012




Est. total homicides during Calderon’s term of office






Data from official Mexican statistical agency (INEGI) # and from the National System for Public Security (SNSP) +

U.S. homicides from FBI Uniform Crime Reports @

U.S. population-- 311,591,917 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Mexico population-- 112,336,538 Source: National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI)

On Monday, July 16, 2012 7:02:04 AM UTC-6, molly wrote:
Note the discrepancies between a Mexican Army report on killings in Juarez from January-June 2012: 952 
And the number provided by the Fiscalia as of June 27: 653
And no resolution of these differing numbers.  Also, as I recall, the total reported by EL DIARIO at the end of June was 536....  The total I reported was about 540.  
I have been traveling the past few weeks and not able to research these things, but will attempt to find some more information later this week. If either number reported by the Army or the Fiscalia is true, then the REPORTING of the deaths in Juarez has not been accurate.  That could be the fault of the Fiscalia, the Public Ministry, some other government entity, or the newspaper.  We may never know the real number.  What these disparate reports indicate is that the real numbers are most likely unknown to any government agency responsible for reporting and that the true death toll may never be known.  As with other past reports, when government numbers do appear, they tend to be higher than previous media reports.  Molly

Juárez slayings decreased 59.8% first half 2012

by Alejandro Martínez-Cabrera \ El Paso Times

Posted:   07/14/2012 12:00:00 AM MDT

Description: uarez crime

Gunmen shot at a Ford Expedition July 10 at the intersection of Batalla de Torreon and Batalla de Puebla streets in Juarez. One person was killed and two were wounded in the incident. (Special to the Times)

JUAREZ -- Evidence continues to mount that the violence that has held this city in a tight grip since 2008 is beginning to loosen -- though no one is ready to say that Juárez has been reborn.

The number of slayings in this city of 1.3 million during the first six months of this year dropped 59.8 percent compared with slayings in the same period of 2011, according to figures from the Chihuahua state prosecutor's office.

Mexican officials have attributed the decrease to the efforts of law enforcement agencies. In addition, Mexican and U.S. government sources and private analysts have hinted that the cartel war that caused the eruption in violence is winding down.

The experts say that the once-powerful Juárez

cartel has been weakened to a point that its rival, the Sinaloa drug cartel, is consolidating its dominance.

A January report from geopolitical intelligence company Stratfor said the Juárez cartel continues to control major drug corridors into El Paso, but it appears to be unable to expand operations because it is hemmed in by the Sinaloa cartel and no longer has a monopoly in Juárez.

"The VCF (Vicente Carrillo Fuentes or Juárez cartel) is only a shadow of the organization it was a decade ago, and its weakness and inability to effectively fight against the Sinaloa's advances in Juárez contributed to the lower death toll in Juárez in 2011," the report said.

Stratfor forecast that violence will continue

to decrease in Juárez as the Sinaloa cartel solidifies its control on the region.

Statistics on the state's prosecutor's website indicate there were 1,623 killings between January and June 2010, and 1,322 in the first half of 2011. This year, there had been 653 slayings as of June 27, the website said.

Other crimes such as vehicle, home and business robberies also have gone down.

On Wednesday, Army Gen. Emilio Zarate, head of the Fifth Military Zone in Chihuahua, told


The Associated Press that gang-related killings in Juárez dropped 42 percent in the first half of 2012.

Zarate said there were 952 killings from January through June this year, compared with 1,642 during the same period last year.

It is unclear why the figures from the army and Chihuahua state's prosecutor's office differed.

Spokesmen for the army and the prosecutor's office could not be reached for comment on Friday.

Zarate said the drop is related to the weakening of both the Juárez cartel -- which Zarate said was having difficulties paying its members -- and rival gang Gente Nueva, which is associated with the Sinaloa cartel.

Other experts have echoed the belief that violence will continue to go down as the Juárez cartel's strength continues to erode.

A September 2011 report from the U.S. Department of Justice National Drug Intelligence Center said the Sinaloa Cartel has continued to gain influence in the Valley of Juárez and over drug smuggling routes in the El Paso-Juárez area. The Juárez cartel's operations have been largely confined within the city limits, the report said.

Violence has also gone down where the Juárez cartel no longer has a presence, it added.

Arrests in the past year have hurt the operations of both criminal organizations but seem to have affected the Juárez cartel the most.

From April 2010 through July 2011, federal police reported having arrested 288 people associated with the Juárez cartel -- including José Antonio Acosta Hernández, alias "El Diego," identified as the former leader of the cartel in Chihuahua.

In the same period, 69 member of the Sinaloa cartel were arrested. Authorities have also arrested major Sinaloa cartel operators like José Antonio Torres Marrufo, alias "El Marrufo," a top enforcer of the cartel who was arrested in February and is thought to have ordered the massacre of 17 people at a rehabilitation center in 2009.

On Monday, authorities arrested Daniel Franco López, alias "El Micha," and Fernando Arellano Romero, alias "El Gama," who were named in a United States federal indictment in connection with the kidnapping and killing of a Horizon City resident, Sergio Saucedo, in 2009.

The bloody war between the two cartels made Juárez one of the most violence cities in the world -- an image that is slowing turning around. Since 2008, more than 10,500 people have died.

The violence caused an exodus from the city, and as many as 70,000 people moved to El Paso to escape the carnage. Businesses closed and the reputation of Juárez as a tourist attraction suffered.

The lively nightlife and restaurants that attracted tourists from all over the U.S. closed down.

Some of that is beginning to return.

Officials and residents say there is a sense that the city is becoming safer.

During the period of most intense violence, Mexican government officials sent up to 8,000 soldiers in an attempt to limit the brutality. Government officials also sent thousands of federal police to help.

University of Texas at El Paso professor Howard Campbell said the departure of the Mexican army and the federal police from Juárez seems to have had an effect in the reduction in crime and violence, although it was difficult to establish a direct cause and effect.

"I think one could almost chart it, see when they left and find that homicides did decline," he said.

Campbell said several months of declining homicide figures suggests a sustained downward trend.

"Clearly the homicide totals are going down month by month. I've gone down to Juárez recently, and it feels much safer," he said.

This week, Juárez mayor Héctor "Teto" Murguía visited state of Aguascalientes to participate in a public safety conference, where he boasted about the decline in killings.

Murguía said the improvements were due to more cooperation -- from the Mexican army, the state prosecutor's office, the city government and the public -- in repairing the city's social fabric. It's clear the two main criminal organizations operating in the city have been weakened as well, he said. But Campbell said the levels of crime and violence are still high and things are far from perfect.

Campbell said: "Things went from being very bad to fairly bad. We have to be realistic. Things have to get better before we can say that the war is over or violence is over."

Alejandro Martínez-Cabrera can be reached at; 546-6129. Follow him on Twitter @AlejandroEPT.


July 16, 2012


Mexican Army: Border City Killings Down 42 Percent

July 11, 2012

The Mexican army says killings by criminal gangs in the northern border city of Ciudad Juarez have fallen 42 percent in the first six months of 2012 as compared to the same period of 2011.

Local army commander Gen. Emilio Zarate says there were 952 such killings in the first half of the year, compared to 1,642 in the first half of 2011.

Zarate says the drop is due to the weakening of the local Juarez drug cartel and its rivals in the Gente Nueva gang, which is allied with the Sinaloa drug cartel.

The two cartels have fought turf battles since 2008 that made Ciudad Juarez Mexico's most violent city.

Zarate said Wednesday the Juarez cartel has become so weak it is having trouble paying its members.